Damp Start To The Week

What’s worse than Monday?  A damp, windy Monday.

Today 4/7 – Scat’d Showers & Storms, Breezy – High 66˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 39˚

6am 51˚ ~ 9am 58˚ ~ 12pm 61˚ ~ 3pm 66˚ ~ 6pm 55˚ ~ 9pm 49˚

Low pressure system will advance northeast across the region today, producing widespread showers early this morning, with scattered storms possible from mid morning – early afternoon.  We’ll also have the joy of being pestered by winds topping 15-25mph today.

The following NAM model loops every 3 hours from 7am through 7pm this evening.  This animation should give you an idea of how this system will behave, with higher precipitable water values favoring a better likelihood for rain through the morning:

Although unlikely, we’ll have a small window of seeing severe weather come to fruition with any  storms that are able to develop from mid morning through early afternoon.  The latest outlook from the SPC says you’ll have a 5% probability of seeing severe winds [≥58+mph] within 25 miles of you during this time:

A 5% probability of seeing hail of at least 1″ in diameter within 25 miles of you:

A 2% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of you:

Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also be a threat with any convection that is able to organize.

Tue – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 59˚ / Tue Night – Iso’d Showers – Low 37˚

An upper level trough will swing overhead on Tuesday, keeping chances of scattered showers and storms in the forecast.  The best chance at seeing the wet stuff will take place through the afternoon.

Severe weather is not expected, however, very cold temperatures aloft could result in small hail with any storm that organizes.

By the time this system finally gets out of our hair Tuesday night, we could see anywhere from .50-1″ of total rainfall from this weather maker:

Wed – Sunny & Nice – High 62˚ / Wed Night – Clear – Low 43˚

High pressure will build in as the aforementioned system moves off to our east on Tuesday night.  This will result in beautiful conditions for south central Kentucky, with sunny skies joining highs in the lower 60s.

On Thursday, a cold front will be approaching from our northwest, as high pressure works off to our east.  This will tighten up the pressure gradient, resulting in strong, southerly winds:

Although these winds may be a bit of a nuisance, they’ll be responsible for taking temperature values into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon.  A give & take, if you will.

That’s all for the morning update.  As always, stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG on twitter for the latest in real-time weather information.  Have a great start to the week, and don’t forget that umbrella this morning.  Thanks for reading!