Rain Tonight-Sunday… Winter Returns

Today 3/15 – Mostly Sunny – High 64˚ / Tonight – Rain – Low 44˚

~ 9am 49˚ ~ 12pm 58˚ ~ 3pm 63˚ ~ 6pm 61˚ ~ 9pm 54˚

Despite the overall theme of this blog post, today will actually be a very nice spring-like day. Skies should be mostly sunny and temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s across the region. Get outside… next few days look sub-par.

By this evening, a potent upper-level disturbance and an associated area of low pressure will approach from the southwest. Subsequently clouds will move in as the chance for rain begins to increase. Models continue to suggest that most of the rain will hold off until after midnight. Once rain moves in, we’ll see a fairly steady area of rain move through which will continue right into Sunday. There could be a few pockets of fairly heavy rainfall at times.

See the animation below to give you better idea of how the system will evolve:

Meanwhile, temperatures will hold steady in the mid to upper 40s for much of the night before beginning a steady decline toward early Sunday morning. Expect temps to range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s from north to south by the time you wake up Sunday morning.

Sun – Rain – High 44˚ / Sun Night – Scat’d Rain Showers to Wintry Mix – Low 28˚

Yup, a high of 44 with rain…. what a terrible weather day! In fact, those of you across the north may not make it above 40 for a daytime high Sunday. This is because as the low pressure slides off to our south, we’ll see northeast to northerly winds which will be bringing in colder air into our region. Thus, temperatures will slowly decline all day with our high occurring first thing in the morning… most of us will spend much of the day in the 30s.

Meanwhile, a cold rain will continue fairly steadily across the region. All told by Sunday night, the area will generally see between 0.50″ and 1.50″. So some areas could see a pretty significant amount of rainfall.

Then, the inevitable… it can only be avoided so long… but yes, we could rain transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle, sleet and snow Sunday evening. See your response below:

Models continue to struggle with the threat of winter weather Sunday evening into the overnight. As temperatures continue to drop, they will eventually fall below freezing leading to what at first could be some freezing rain or sleet across the area before there is a transition to snow.

As is often the case, the question will be will the cold air arrive before all the moisture exits. The verdict is still out on that as models continue to fluctuate. Answering this question will mean a lot in deciding if and how much accumulations we will see.

Areas across the north (say Butler to Edmonson Counties) will see the best chance at seeing wintry precipitation, though I think it’s possible most of us end up seeing at least a little. As of right now (and this will likely change) minor accumulations seem possible. In general, any accumulations would be up to and less than 1″. However, we’ll continue to monitor an evolving weather situation.

See the Weather Prediction Center’s probability of up to 1″ of snow below:

Mon – Mostly to Partly Cloudy – High 45˚ / Mon Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 38˚

By morning, most all of the precipitation should have pushed to the east of our region. However, areas of flurries can’t be ruled out early. We should see some areas of sun as we move through the day but clouds will do there best to try and stick around. Temperatures will struggle to warm, managing only the low to mid 40s.

Monday night, more clouds may try to move in which should help keep temperatures from falling; a low only in the upper 30s.

That’s all I have for now but be sure to keep an eye on this ever changing forecast. All in all, the rain should be the major story this weekend but we’ll certainly watch the possibility for any wintry accumulations across the area. As always, get the latest at @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx on twitter. Enjoy a beautiful Saturday!