Severe Weather Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, today’s severe weather threat is still forecast to impact the area as we head into evening. Being this close to the event start time, our forecast tools shift away from model guidance and trend towards current observations.

The area of low pressure to our west is intensifying as it moves into parts of western Missouri, and strong southerly winds continue to pump warm, moist air into the area, with temperatures in the 70s nearly state wide. Check out this map of some of the wind gusts around the state this afternoon that prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Wind Advisory until midnight:

Cloud cover has remained in place over our area the whole day, and it will continue to do so as some scattered showers could pop up ahead of a line of thunderstorms currently developing in central Missouri. These thunderstorms will congeal into a better defined line of storms and push eastward as the day goes on.  Use the model below to get a better idea of how this will evolve:

This line of storms will impact the area somewhere in between 6 and 9 PM. The cloud cover has helped to limit the instability in the atmosphere, which could weaken the line of storms, but the upper level winds are very strong with this area of low pressure. Here is the 12Z run of the NAM  model which shows winds > 100 mph about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere (500 mb) just west of Kentucky at 6PM.

These winds are too high in the atmosphere to cause winds that strong on the surface, but they will help to be the driving force of this line of storms. Scattered storms should organize into a squall line and we will have to monitor the line for bowing sections (sections of the line that push ahead of the rest of the line) where winds could be highest.

Thunderstorms can mix winds from high up in the atmosphere down to the surface well, and our threat of damaging winds will depend on how well those upper level winds can transfer to the surface. While we won’t see winds over 100mph, we could see damaging winds in excess of  60 mph associated with the squall line.

Tornadoes do not look like a large threat with these storms. There could be a few brief tornadoes along the leading edge of the line, but damaging winds are again the largest threat. the Storm Prediction will most likely issue a watch of some sort for our area later this afternoon.

So, here is what to expect as far as impacts tonight.

-Cloudy skies and temperatures in the 70s will continue with a few showers possible before line of storms arrive.

-Line of strong to severe thunderstorms arrives between 6-9 PM. The primary threats with these storms will be damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and moderate to heavy rainfall. Strongest winds will be along and  just ahead of the line of storms.

– Behind the main line of storms, showers and thunderstorms will continue until around midnight  with rainfall totals of 1-2+”.

-Cold front will pass overnight and temperatures will fall into the upper 30s.

Entering the weekend, the weather will take a cooler and much calmer turn. Skies will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 30s on Friday and Saturday. For frequent updates regarding tonight’s severe weather, follow @WarrenCountyWX and @Wx_Or_Not on Twitter & Facebook. We will be keeping you posted with the latest forecast, as well as any watches or warnings that are issued.