Severe Storms Possible Today

Today 2/20 – Storms Likely, BREEZY – High 76˚ / Tonight – Storms Likely – Low 35˚

6am 61˚ ~ 9am 65˚ ~ 12pm 72˚ ~ 3pm 76˚ ~ 6pm 63˚ ~ 9pm 55˚

*Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon & Evening*

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, it should be no secret that the potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms today.  A few storms have already impacted the area early this morning, but have since subsided…for the most part.  

We are now firmly located in the warm sector of this weather maker, with a warm front lifting north of our proximity.  Here’s a look at the current surface conditions:

Southerly winds will slowly increase as the day wears on, reaching speeds of 30-40+mph as we get into late morning – early afternoon.  Wind-breaker weather, eh?  These winds will pump our atmosphere full of warm, moist air, which will cause temps to soar into the 70s.

Keep your eyes on the sky this morning.  If we get rays of sunshine breaking through the clouds, it will not be good.  This will aide instability by heating the earth’s surface, thus increasing the likelihood of us seeing inclement weather as we get into this afternoon.  If we stay cloudy with a few light rain showers hanging around, this will limit instability.

A strong cold front will surge west to east across our region this afternoon & evening, firing off widespread showers and storms ahead of it.  The window for severe weather will open around 2-3pm, and won’t close until around midnight tonight.  The following NAM simulated radar loop is hourly, valid from 2pm – 8pm this today.  This should give you an idea of how this system may behave:

Parameters are aligned for a potential QLCS event to unfold…a jagged, multi-linear squall line.  A few discrete cells ahead of this “main event” can’t be ruled out.  Our most significant threat will be widespread damaging winds (60-70+mph), along with torrential rainfall, lightning and hail.  Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  Rainfall amounts could range from 1-2+”.

The latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to a Moderate Risk for severe weather today, raising concerns that things could get nasty later in the day:

 The following image displays the area under the highest threat (outlined by dashed line) for severe winds this afternoon and evening.  Bowling Green and the rest of south central Kentucky are included:

Please stay up to date as this event comes to fruition.  As with any forecast, I’m giving you a scenario our atmosphere will be capable of producing.  Whether it does so or not is another story.  I’m just being honest with you.

As the cold front clears to our east tonight, skies should rapidly clear from west to east.  On Friday, we’ll be dealing with much cooler conditions, as highs are limited to the low – mid 50s.  The good news is that the sun should return.  Similar conditions look to kickoff the weekend.

That’s all I’ve got for the time being.  Zack Leasor will be back this afternoon with another update.  Stay in contact with @WarrenCountyWx & @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent info on our pending severe weather situation.  Have a great day, and stay safe.  Thanks for reading.