Winter Weather Possible Tonight

Today is Groundhog Day.  Phil saw his shadow…meaning 6 more weeks of winter.  Coincidence?  I think not.

Today 2/2 – Scat’d Showers – High 42˚ / Tonight – Wintry Mix Likely – Low 28˚

**Winter Weather Advisory for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson & Warren County from 5pm this afternoon – 9am Monday**

6am 39˚ ~ 9am 38˚ ~ 12pm 38˚ ~ 3pm 37˚ ~ 6pm 33˚ ~ 9pm 32˚

As forecast, a cold front is currently advancing southeast across the area, bringing with it widespread rain showers.  We’ll keep  scattered rain chances in the forecast throughout the day, as the front eventually stalls along the Appalachian mountains.  Here’s a look at the current surface setup:

Colder air will steadily filter in behind the front, thanks to high pressure located to our northwest.  As this occurs, a potent shortwave disturbance will advance northeast across the lower Ohio Valley, as a low pressure system to our south heads toward the Carolinas.

In response to these features, plentiful moisture will be churned northeast across our proximity.  This moisture will coincide with the colder air working in to create a transition from all rain to a wintry mix of sleet and snow this evening.  Perfect timing for all of us traveling to Super Bowl parties, eh??  *Eye-roll*

As we get into the early morning hours of our Monday, a transition to all snow is expected.  Here is a look at the HRRR simulated radar model, valid for 7am this morning.  It gives us a better understanding of where this disturbance will come from.  Notice it is across the southern plains, ejecting northeast toward our proximity:

The GFS precip type loop below is valid from 12pm this afternoon – 12pm Monday in 6-hour increments.  Hopefully this gives you a better idea of how this system may behave:

As far as accumulations are concerned, I’m not budging.  Since Friday, I’ve talked about a northwest shift in the models, thus resulting in minor accumulations of a spotty dusting – 2″ of snow and sleet for Warren and bordering counties.  Localized areas could see more.

Values could reach as highs as 3+” for those aligned farther north, closer to the Ohio River & Louisville Metro.  This is where moderate to heavy snow bands are more likely to evolve.

The NWS has adjusted their products, removing the Weather Or Not viewing area out of a Winter Storm Watch, and transitioned us to a Winter Weather Advisory.  They have now lessened accumulation totals for us, more aligned with my thinking (spotty dusting – 2″).  Here is a look at their current thinking:

Temperature timing will be the big factor as to how much snow we see.  The quicker the values drop, the better chance we have at seeing measurable snow gather on the ground.  Regardless, travel is expected to be impacted tonight into Monday morning.  If you plan on traveling…please exercise caution.

Expect gradual clearing to take place throughout our Monday, as temperatures rebound into the lower 40s.  This should make any snow that falls disappear rather quickly.  All in all, this is not an event worth robbing the bread & milk man over.  Again, even if we do see significant snow amounts tonight, travel should improve drastically as our Monday progresses.  WE.  WILL.  SURVIVE.

That’s all for now, folks.  Be sure to stay in touch with me @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent weather information.  Adjustments to the forecast, if needed, will be made accordingly as the latest data becomes available.  Everyone have a great day, and stay safe.  Thanks for reading.