Winter Outlooks – Fibbing Amongst The Finest

First and foremost, I’d like to say that there requires nearly zero skill in producing a “Winter Outlook.”  I have listened to a wide variety of folks, both amateurs and veterans, tell me what they think this winter will bring, and their theories range from comical to broad range, with little substance.  Whether it be a member of the older generation explaining to me how they watch corn stalks or the direction leaves take as they fall to the ground, or the professional forecaster pointing me toward a number of supercomputer models, no one really knows what this winter will bring.  If they tell you different, consider it fibbing amongst the finest.

I won’t be claiming an official “Winter Outlook” here, however, I will dig deeper into the attitude of a very important teleconnection that influences the weather we experience through every season across the eastern tier of North America.  This teleconnection is referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  What is a teleconnection?  I’m glad you asked.

Teleconnections are defined by the American Meteorological Society as:

“1. A linkage between weather changes occurring in widely separate regions of the globe.  2. A significant positive or negative correlation in the fluctuations of a field at widely separated points. Most commonly applied to variability on monthly and longer timescales, the name refers to the fact that such correlations suggest that information is propagating between the distant points through the atmosphere.”

I’m not much of a climate enthusiast, however, I have studied this teleconnection very closely.  To begin, lets take a look at the two separate phases of the NAO.  These phases are known as the Positive Phase, and the Negative Phase:

– The negative phase includes a weaker than usual subtropical high, and a weak Icelandic low.  Again, take a look at the above figure to better understand this.

– The setup that comes with a negative phase causes a weaker pressure gradient, thus resulting in fewer winter storms crossing the Atlantic on a west – east path.

– Negative phases have often been associated with cool air to the northern tier of Europe, while moisture makes its nest near the Mediterranean.  The eastern tier of the USA experiences more cold air flare-ups,  which adds to the possibility of “snowier” conditions.

Now that we’ve broke down the NAO and what it means, lets take a glance at how the current phase of the NAO is shaping up.  The model below is an ensemble looking at the NAO phase from the end of May through the early part of October:

As illustrated, the phase went a bit negative through the early part of June, with a more positive outlook through mid-July.  The trend held negative through the middle of August, before fluctuating back to positive through the end of September.  Note the trend that the ensembles are favoring now for the future…a negative phase as we get into the month of October.  What does this mean?  It seems as though we may be looking at a few negative phases through the winter season, which would suggests a better probability at experiencing snow.Keep in mind that several other teleconnections and variables make up what will actually occur through this winter season.  I’m not an oracle that can read the future months in advance, so I cannot give you an accurate answer as to what will actually occur.  No one else can give you an accurate answer, either…not even the Farmer’s Almanac, which is basically glorified weather folklore.  Stay in touch through the season as I continue with my 4-6 day outlooks, which I feel much more comfortable producing.

I’m a snow lover, so I’d sure like to see a few rounds of the white stuff make it to us this winter season.  Everyone get out and do your snow dances, and I’ll keep a close eye on the hornet’s nest in the field behind my house to let you know of any changes to my “Winter Outlook.”