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Howdy friends, and happy Wednesday to you all! The weather sure has been quiet for us this week, but that has not been for the same for the people in the Bahamas. Major Hurricane Dorian has caused catastrophic damage, and will continue along the US east coast. We are lucky, however, as a cold front passing through today will make way for a nice Thursday ahead.
Weak “Cold” Front
Finally some change in the forecast! A weak cold front will be passing through the area today.
This weak front can’t completely rule out a chance of seeing some precipitation. The HRW NMMB model had an output of maybe an isolated storm or two during the afternoon/early evening hours. There are decent ingredients in place, but best chances still remain to be east of I-65.
Other models like the GFS and NAM have kept this afternoon dry, which doesn’t agree completely with the HRW NMMB. Confidence remains low that we see any showers/storms this afternoon and chances remain low enough that you shouldn’t cancel outdoor plans.
Otherwise, today will be another warm and muggy day. Expect afternoon temperatures to reach around 90ºF, with heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s. Winds will be rather light and out of the west-southwest. That won’t last long, though, as winds shift to be out of the northwest after the front passes.
Beautiful Thursday Coming
After the cold front passes, we’ll get a nice relief from the muggy conditions. High pressure quickly follows the frontal passage, so sunny days will be around for a while.
Light northwest winds will be a big help in relief from the high dew points. Cool, dry air will be flowing into the area, which will help keep afternoon highs around 81º (enjoy, this is slightly below normal for this time of year!). Overnight temperatures will be a bit chilly, as temperatures will drop to around 57º under clear skies.
Warming Up Again
The relief will be short-lived, as normal temperatures will be returning to finish the work-week. The normal high temperature for early September is 87 (according to NWS Louisville), and the high for Friday is forecast to be right there along with sunny skies.
Fun fact, on September 6, 2018, the high was 89ºF, which was a bit warmer than what we have forecast (87º) for one year later on Friday.
Winds will be turning to be out of the west-southwest in response to a low pressure system way up north. Luckily, we will stay dry, but the winds will definitely help usher in some muggy air once again.
Otherwise, skies will remain clear for the overnight hours. Expect temperatures to drop to around 62ºF. It’ll be a great night to kick off the weekend with a backyard bonfire and s’mores!
Extended Outlook
September is a month with a lot of variety. The average high temperature at the beginning of the month is around 87ºF, but the by the end of the month, the average high temperature drops to around 76ºF!
The average low temperature at the beginning of September is 64ºF. At the end of September, the average low temperature is 51ºF, making for some chilly autumn nights.
The Climate Prediction Center has issued their 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. They suggest that we will have above normal temperatures into the middle of the month.
This map suggests that we have a 60% probability of having above average temperatures for the Sept 9 – 13 timeframe.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.