Good Monday Morning folks! I hope everyone has had a safe and pleasant weekend even with the ushering in of the cold air once again. We’ve got a fair amount to talk about today, including, the chances for some more snow.
Before we dive into the forecast, there are a few things I would like to share with you. First up, the NWS surveyed the damage in Bowling Green from our latest severe weather event and found a combination of straight-line wind and tornado damage. The straight-line winds were estimated to be at 75 mph, and the tornado an EF0 with winds up to 85 mph.
Below I will also include a map of the newest tornado track (Blue – EF0), The EF3 (Orange), and the EF2 (Yellow) that have hit Bowling Green just since December 11. This all means that Bowling Green has experienced 3 tornadoes within the past 3 weeks.
Just a day after this new tornado, much if not all of WABBLES experienced snowfall, some of it heavy at times. Two of our southern counties (Logan and Simpson) got to experience Tornado Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories within 36 hours of each other.
Today will thankfully remain on the quiet side as high pressure is finally making its way into the region and keeping us clear of any disturbances for the day.
Although we won’t have any weather disturbances, we will likely have to contend with some pesky low-level clouds for the first part of the day. Other than that, expect some very cold highs in the mid-30s.
Tuesday looks to feature similar conditions to today as high pressure remains dominant over the region.
We will also see some more pesky clouds in the morning which should again give way to clearer skies for the latter half of the day. More good news for Tuesday is that highs should break 40! WABBLES should see temps around 41 for the high.
Wednesday will feature a continuation of the “warmth” (if you want to call it that) with highs getting close to 50 around WABBLES. High pressure will continue to be in place for part of the day, but a cold front will pass through towards the latter half of the day. No rain or impactful weather is expected with this cold front.
This will be where things could get very interesting with our next weather maker. But, like always, there are some model disagreement and uncertainties. The main disagreement will be whether or not we actually have a system, the GFS Model (below) is not very excited and only has some light showers over KY.
If you’re a snow lover, you’re probably not the biggest fan of the GFS right now. Anyways, here is where things get interesting, the European Model says no no no to the GFS and brings in a healthy system with snow for much of the region.
The Canadian model looks very similar to the Euro, and they have both been fairly consistent for the past few runs which makes me want to believe their solution a bit more than the GFS’s for right now. Now, this is still 3-4 days out and things could very well change, so take this with a grain of salt.
One big thing for this system will be the track that the low pressure takes. Right now, it looks to track almost right along the Appalachian Mountains which is barely far enough to the south and east to be giving us snow and not rain. If that track shifts very much to the northwest, our snow chances will be put in jeopardy.
I also have concerns with moisture and warm air aloft, but right now, the track of the low is the biggest factor that could greatly change how this unfolds. For now, I am confident that there is a good chance for snow on Thursday. This can of course change as I said but as of now, I like where we are.
That will be all for today folks! I am not including a forecast for Friday yet as this possible snowmaker will likely extend into Friday and so the forecast will be very dependent on how this continues to look in the models. As always, I will leave our socials down below, where we will post our more frequent updates.
Have a blessed day