Quiet Weather Today, Slight Risk for Storms Tomorrow

February was an active and very wet month, with a total rainfall of 6.12 inches, which is 2.16 inches above normal. This active pattern has continued into March. Since the beginning of the month, we have already received just under 3 inches of rain. While it will be mostly cloudy and quiet weather today, there is a Slight Risk for storms tomorrow.

Mostly Cloudy Wednesday

Mostly cloudy skies will dominate until our next rain chances arrive tomorrow morning. Winds will be calm today, and mostly out of the southeast.

When it’s dry and warm temperatures for today. (Giphy)

Afternoon temperatures will rise to around 63ºF, which is a bit warm for mid March. Normal high temperature for Bowling Green for March 11 is 58ºF.

Forecast highs today are mild across the Ohio Valley (Pivotal Weather)

There is some model agreement on the next approaching weather complex staying just south of our area, but we can’t completely rule out getting a light shower this afternoon or evening. There won’t be any impacts if we do, and should be short-lived.

Showers and a few storms will move just to our south today. (Pivotal Weather)

Temperatures stay mild for the overnight hours, as rain chances do increase for Thursday. Our low temperature is expected to only be around 50ºF.

Rain and Storms for Thursday

Rain and storms for Thursday as a potent cold front is expected to pass through. A low pressure system located over southern Canada is dragging a cold front across the entire Mississippi River Valley, from Michigan all the way down to the southwest US.

Some lighter showers may be present for the morning commute, but the main story for tomorrow is the potential thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.

Slight Risk (yellow) for severe weather for tomorrow. (SPC)

A decent combination of instability, energy, wind shear, and moisture make the ingredients available to see some stronger storms, maybe even a few severe. Afternoon temperatures will be near 70ºF, so it’ll definitely feel like April. While the weather today is non-impactful, it’s a good time to make sure you have 2 or 3 ways to get weather warnings from the National Weather Service if needed for tomorrow.

Trying to figure out the storms like Bill in Twister. (Giphy)

The greatest chance to see storms will be in the late afternoon to evening hours. We should start tomorrow with some light showers, but by the afternoon hours heavier rain moves in.

Rain and storms look to come during the afternoon tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)

Here is an excerpt with what our friends at the National Weather Service think about Thursday’s risk:

Thursday looks to start fairly quiet with perhaps some light shower activity in southern KY in the morning. Increasing southerly flow and WAA will likely boost temps into the upper 60s and lower 70s ahead of the aforementioned wave. Sfc dewpoints will rise into the mid 50s to around 60. Convection is likely to develop across portions of MO/AR/IL/TN earlier in the day, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms affecting central KY and southern IN in the afternoon and especially the evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms do still appear to be a possibility, mainly between 4pm Thu – 10pm Fri. The degree of destabilization is the biggest limiting factor at this point.

Showers should exit the region during the overnight hours, mainly after midnight. Nighttime temperatures will dip to around 50ºF one again.

Calming Down for Friday

Showers will exit early Friday morning before most people wake up. The cold front will have already passed through, so breezy winds will be out of the north for most of the day. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy, and temperatures will max out around 57ºF.

Clouds look to hang around for Friday. (Pivotal Weather)

Low temperatures will bottom out around 40ºF, under mostly cloudy skies. We should stay dry until Saturday when the next wave approaches.