Approaching Cold Front to Briefly Break Pattern

Good morning, friends, and welcome to another updated wxornotBG forecast! I hope your weekend has been treating you well. The summer-like heat and abnormally dry conditions have been persistent for September, but an approaching cold front is set to briefly break that pattern.

When "rain" shows up in the forecast for the first time in a month. (Giphy) — When “rain” shows up in the forecast for the first time in a month. (Giphy)

Sunday Sun Day

Today looks to be another day of high pressure and plentiful sunshine. However, a strong cold front is pushing the high pressure off to the east, over Georgia and South Carolina.

Winds today will be out of the southwest because the high pressure is moving out (remember, high pressure winds are clockwise around the center). Winds will be around 10 mph today, with gusts up to 20 mph possible.

Wind gusts up to 20 mph possible today. (Pivotal Weather)

These stronger winds will help bring in warmer temperatures from the south. Expect afternoon highs to once again be around 91ºF. The average high temperature for Bowling Green on this date is 79ºF, so we’ll still be well above average. Skies will be clear during the daytime hours, but clouds will increase as we head into the evening hours.

When you want Fall temperatures and a Pumpkin Spice Latte but it's like an oven outside. (Giphy) — When you want Fall temperatures and a Pumpkin Spice Latte but it’s like an oven outside. (Giphy)

We should remain dry tonight, but could begin to see a few sprinkles after midnight (Monday morning). Otherwise, overnight conditions will be increasing clouds with temperatures around 67ºF. Winds will still be out of the south, around 10 mph.

Much Needed Cold Front Arriving Monday

Well folks, we may finally get some much needed rainfall once this cold front passes over the Ohio Valley. September has been very dry, and burn bans have been in place for the entire WABBLES area for a few days now.

As the cold front approaches, the winds will shift to be out of the northwest. This will help keep temperatures closer to average. Expect afternoon highs to only reach 83ºF, mainly due to the winds, cloud cover, and any rainfall. Speaking of rainfall, there is a little bit of model disagreement on simulated future radar.

The GFS (animated below) and NAM agree pretty well on showers approaching western Kentucky around 4 AM and eventually the WABBLES area by 7 AM. Light showers (could be off and on) should stick around through mid afternoon.

GFS model guidance for rain on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

The two models also agree on thinking that the band of showers will be weakening as they work into the drier air over KY/TN. Other models are thinking that the showers will weaken and dissipate before even reaching our area, but for now we will lean on the GFS and NAM for guidance.

After the cold front passes, skies will begin to clear out Monday night. High pressure will once again be filling in behind the front. Overnight temperatures will be around 55ºF, and with northwest winds helping to bring in that drier and cooler air.

Back to Sunshine on Tuesday

As just mentioned above, high pressure will quickly follow behind the front and sit right on top of us. This will lead to mostly sunny skies again for our Tuesday. However, winds will be out of the north-northeast, so temperatures will be influenced by that.

High pressure on top of us on Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Temperatures will again be around 83ºF, slightly above normal, but that’s better than being in the 90s! Winds will also be much calmer today, staying mostly around 5 mph. Into the evening and overnight hours, our weather will remain calm, with only partly cloudy skies. Nighttime temperatures will be around 57ºF.

6-10 Day Outlook Looks Familiar

Monday’s cold front will be a nice change of pace, but the overall pattern looks to hold a tight grip on two-thirds of the US.

That upper-level atmospheric ridge is keeping us hot and quiet. (Giphy) — That upper-level atmospheric ridge is keeping us hot and dry. (Giphy)

The latest Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook keeps us above normal temperatures in the September 27 to October 1 time range.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook keeping us much warmer than normal. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally, the Climate Prediction Center predicts we will remain below normal for rainfall during this time period. While we are above normal in total rainfall for the year, most of that rain was due to a very wet spring. Since January 1, 2019, Bowling Green has received 43 inches of rain, which is about 6 inches above normal for the first 9 months of the year. We could definitely use some rainy days soon.

CPC 6-10 Day Rainfall Outlook keeping us drier than normal. (Pivotal Weather)

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Sunday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.