Thursday Afternoon Update

Good news!  As anticipated, the cloud deck in place over the area this morning has started to erode out.  This has allow beautiful conditions to take over, complete with partly sunny skies, along with temperatures ranging between the upper 60’s and low 70’s.

Clearing will continue overnight and into Friday, allowing rays of sunshine and southerly winds to take highs to the low 80s.  It should be warmer than today, and still beautiful…

The questionable part of the forecast will arrive this weekend.  Several of you have questions, and that’s understandable, considering it’s a 3-day weekend…Memorial Day weekend, that is, and outdoor festivities will be numerous.

At this point in time, we’re cautiously optimistic that the start of Saturday should be dry, for the most part.  Short-range models are just now coming into play, and are suggesting a warm front will drape itself across the Ohio Valley.  The model below was produced using the NAM 3km valid for 7AM Saturday morning:

If you’re rooting for a drier forecast, you want this to come to fruition.  Should the front orient itself a bit more south, closer to us, and we could be in for shower & storm chances by mid morning.

Regardless how this plays out, Saturday will open up the door to a very hot and humid airmass.  Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s will coincide with dewpoints approaching 70˚, creating a very sticky, uncomfortable feel.  If you have outdoor plans, I wouldn’t cancel them…however, a backup, indoor plan B is always encouraged.

This setup will allow for the possibility of strong/severe storms sometime between Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  Currently, the NAM 3km showcases strong storms exploding over far western Kentucky and Missouri by 7pm Saturday evening, which will plow eastward across the region:

Our primary threat will be damaging wind and hail, along with concerns for flooding.  Take into account our already saturated ground and full foliage taking hold, which could provide a vulnerability to downed trees with this event.

Surplus rainfall (2-4+”) will be a possibility, considering rain chances will continue through Sunday as well, before drier conditions roll in come Memorial Day, following the passing of a cold front.

That’ll wrap up your Thursday afternoon update.  We’ll continue to update as necessary to keep you informed of what to expect as we progress over the upcoming days.