Active Week of Storm Chances Ahead

I’m happy to report the low stratus cloud deck that plagued the region throughout much of our Saturday has skirted off to the east, allowing rays of sunshine to take over.  Southerly winds will take over as an area of high pressure dips to our east, allowing for a nice warm up, with highs reaching the 70s!

Absorb every bit of that beautiful sunshine you can, before dreary, rainy weather returns as we start the work week.  An area of low pressure is expected to eject out of the Gulf, near east Texas, cutting a path toward the Ohio Valley.  The GFS pressure model below illustrates this:

As this occurs, we have an interesting scenario that could pan out…

The latest guidance is hinting at isolated showers arriving late tonight, with a line of storms surging northward over the area between mid morning and mid afternoon Monday.  Following the initial line of storms, we’ll have to focus on “nowcasting” (watching temperature/moisture recovery following the rain, how much sunshine appears, if the low intensifies, etc.).  During this time frame, we could see temperatures flirt with the 80˚ threshold.

Severe Weather Possible

Should we get a few hours of solid sunshine, another round of strong/severe storms could surge northeast over us between late afternoon and early evening.  The latest NAM 3km model illustrates this nicely.  Light rain makes an appearing during the predawn hours of our Monday, followed by an initial line of storms around lunch time, with another, separate round firing up thanks to daylight heating during the afternoon.  See for yourself:

Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, however, we could see a few cells meet severe criteria.  The primary threats with this particular weather maker will be damaging winds along the leading edge of the line(s) of storms, along with large hail.  The latest SPC Severe Weather Outlook places us in a Marginal Risk (Think 2/5 on a scale of 1 to 5, the larger the number, the greater the threat) for Monday.

Following an active Monday, Tuesday looks to give us a brief break in the action, with rays of sun returning, along with temp readings in the 70s.

Another low pressure system looks to take a similar path to Monday’s system on Wednesday, which could lead to yet another round of widespread showers and storms…some of which could be strong/severe.  The SPC has us in a Day 4 outlook for the possibility of inclement weather, so we’ll have to watch the evolution of that system closely as well:

A spell of much colder temperatures will settle in thanks to a trough digging in Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures limited to the 50s.  The good news is a warming trend joins sunshine as we get into next weekend.

That’ll wrap up this morning’s forecast post.  Keep up with the latest, real-time weather information for south central Kentucky with @wxornotBG on Twitter and Landon Hampton on Facebook.  Have a great Sunday!