Severe Weather, Including Possible Tornadoes, Strikes South-Central Kentucky

The storm system that impacted south central Kentucky late last night into the early morning hours of today was poised to be the greatest threat for severe weather in quite some time.  In terms of the number of severe weather reports, it didn’t disappoint in that respect…

Filtered storm reports from 6am yesterday to 6am today (top) and from 6am through present today (bottom). (Storm Prediction Center)
Filtered storm reports from 6am yesterday to 6am today (top) and from 6am through present today (bottom). Blue indicates damaging wind report, red indicates tornado report, green indicates large hail report. (Storm Prediction Center)

The Storm Prediction Center nailed their forecast for this event.  In a general sense, they had the greatest risk for severe weather and strong tornadoes to our north and west, across southeastern Indiana, southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri.  They also mentioned the threat shifting to a more severe wind threat with possible spin-up tornadoes as you moved closer to the I-65 corridor in southern Kentucky.  That’s exactly what we experienced.

Along with the better dynamics to the northwest came a better environment for significant severe weather, where several confirmed EF-3 tornadoes touched down, causing fatalities across Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.  An area hit especially hard was the town of Perryville, Missouri, not far from the Illinois border.

Closer to home, many of the severe reports were wind gusts reported as a potent squall line raked across the southern half of the state between 5am and 8am CST.  In fact, several sites within the Kentucky Mesonet network tallied wind speeds in excess of 60-70 mph.  That’s impressive!

Peak wind gusts since midnight CST across the state. Notice the nearly 80 MPH gusts at the Graves and Caldwell County sites, although that report in Carroll County also stands out from the northern end of the squall line. (Kentucky Mesonet)
Peak wind gusts since midnight CST across the state. Notice the nearly 80 MPH gusts at the Graves and Caldwell County sites, although that report in Carroll County also stands out from the northern end of the squall line. (Kentucky Mesonet)

As the squall line raced to the east at highway speeds (seriously, we’re talking anywhere between 60 and 75 MPH) it began really tighten together into a more solid line with very strong winds less than a half a mile off the ground.

And it’s in areas along the leading edge of that squall line where the greatest chance of a spin-up tornado would occur and we’re now gathering evidence that that did indeed occur in two areas in south-central Kentucky. The National Weather Service from Louisville are headed to portions of western Butler County as well as eastern Warren County to perform damage surveys during the day tomorrow.

The damage in western Butler County, took place mainly south of the Rochester area, where many trees were twisted and snapped.

If a tornado did touchdown, based on a preliminary survey, this would likely be the path of that tornado in Butler County.

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Based on a preliminary survey, this would be the path of the potential tornado in Butler County. (Landon Hampton/Jon Durall)

Another possible tornado touchdown took place in far Eastern Warren County, where more significant damage was observed:

Areas with damage from a possible tornado this morning in eastern Warren County. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)
Areas with damage from a possible tornado this morning in eastern Warren County. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)
House damaged by a possible tornado in eastern Warren County near Cemetery Road. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)
House damaged by a possible tornado in eastern Warren County near Cemetery Road. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)
Large tree felled by strong winds possibly from a tornado near Cemetery Road this morning. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)
Large tree felled by strong winds possibly from a tornado near Cemetery Road this morning. (Melissa Moore/Warren County Emergency Management)

Again, at this time, there is no confirmation that this was indeed a tornado. We won’t know that until the NWS can get to these areas to do a damage survey Thursday, but whether or not there was a tornado or straight-line winds, the damage is still done.  Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities were reported.  I’ll leave you with a final image provided by NWS Louisville, which outlines the areas of interest for surveys today and tomorrow:

planned_surveys03012017
h/t NWS Louisville