Nice Today; Memorial Day Rain Chances

Today 5/24 – Mostly Sunny – High 84˚ / Tonight – Iso’d Storms – Low 65˚

An upper ridge will provide another day of partly to mostly sunny skies across south central Kentucky.  This ridge will slowly shift east of the area, allowing for southerly flow to amp up.

Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20mph, with gusts of up to 30mph not out of the question.  The model below displays estimated 10 meter wind speeds at 11am this morning:

NAM 4km 10m Wind Speeds valid 11am
NAM 4km 10m Wind Speeds valid 11am – via WeatherBELL

Conditions will settle once we get into late afternoon, before hit and miss storms chances become possible thru the overnight.


Memorial Day – Showers & Storms Likely – High 81˚ / Mon Night – Iso’d Storms – Low 67˚

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but scattered storms will be a concern for all of you lake goers/outdoor enthusiasts come Memorial Day…

imgur.com
via imgur.com

It won’t be a complete washout, however, a shortwave trough will pass over the region, promoting lift that will interact with available moisture disturbance passing over the area will interact with our moisture-packed air to create the potential for likely showers & storms, especially thru the morning hours, across south central Kentucky.

Provided below is the GFS 6-hour precip model valid for 1pm Monday.  As you can see, this model run favors the idea of wet stuff impacting the area. This looks to be the start of an active pattern…

GFS precip model valid 1pm Monday
GFS precip model valid 1pm Monday – via WeatherBELL

Tue 5/26 – Scat’d Storms – High 84˚ / Tue Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 65˚

Moisture parameters will increase over the course of our Tuesday, just as another wave of energy transverses thru the region.  The result will be continued storm chances, with an uptick in coverage and intensity once we get into the afternoon.

The SPC has already included us in a Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday afternoon.  With the given parameters in place, damaging winds, large hail, and even an isolated tornado will be possible.

SPC Convective Outlook Valid Tuesday
SPC Convective Outlook Valid Tuesday

With unseasonably high precipitable water values available, torrential rain and flooding could also become a concern.  The model below displays estimated PWATS at 1pm Tuesday afternoon:

PWAT Values Valid 1pm Tuesday
PWAT Values Valid 1pm Tuesday

Our unsettled weather pattern will continue over the course of the upcoming days, finally toning down once we get toward the end of the work week.  High temperature values will range from the mid to upper 80s through the latter half of the week.

The image provided displays potential rainfall amounts through late Thursday.  It suggest we could see total rainfall amounts of 1-2+” thru this time:

QPF model valid thru Thursday evening
QPF valid thru Thursday evening

That will be all for the morning update.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather information.  Also be sure to stay connected to @WKUStormChase on twitter for live updates as they track severe weather phenomena across the Great Plains!