Winter Storm Evening Update

*Winter Storm WARNING thru 12 pm Thursday for all of south central Kentucky*

4pm 35˚ – 7pm 30˚ – 10pm 28˚ – 1am 26˚ – 4am 24˚

Heavy rain will persist throughout the afternoon for most of south central Kentucky. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 30s across the region, with mid to upper 20s stretching NW towards Owensboro. These temps will  continue to gradually work southeast as the night wears on. It is worth nothing that sleet is already mixing in to our NW in Morgantown.

@WxOrNotBG COLD winds have picked up and sleet is now mixing with rain in Morgantown.

— Cody Donaldson (@codman1027) March 4, 2015

@WxOrNotBG Sleet at Richland road in Butler County! pic.twitter.com/jqeHMSfZnl — Brandon Brown (@Brandon80Brown) March 4, 2015

Timing: Here is a look at the timing of the changeover from rain to sleet/snow. Bowling Green should begin to see a changeover to sleet between 4 pm and 6 pm, with a change to all snow between 8 pm and 11 pm. Those to our northwest have already experienced the transition to sleet; others to our southeast will see this occur later.

The heaviest snow/sleet will likely fall between 9 pm tonight and 3 am Thursday morning.

The snow will exit the region between early and mid morning Thursday.

The HRRR simulated radar model below loops every three hours from 4pm thru 4am.  It favors a potential changeover between 4pm and 6 pm:

Issues/Concerns with this Storm:

• Flooding ongoing across the region due to heavy rain. Be careful while driving and keep an eye on low lying areas near creeks/rivers.
• A brief period of freezing rain is possible before we transition to sleet. Freezing rain accumulations look to be less than .15″.
• We may see substantial sleet accumulations if the sleet doesn’t transition to snow rather quickly. Sleet accumulations between 1 and 2 inches are not out of the question; will lead to treacherous travel across the region.
• The snow will be heavy and wet once we transition over later tonight. This could lead to a lot of weight on power lines and tree branches and may result in bringing them to the ground. This is obviously a concern with loss of power.

Please stay off the roads once this event starts.  Hazardous travel and sporadic power outages will be the main concerns with this system, especially as we progress through the night.  You don’t have much time at this point.  Prepare accordingly.

Accumulations:

Total accumulations are heavily dependent on changeover timing and the amount of sleet that mixes in. With that being said, our original snow & ice accumulations seem to be on track and we’ll stick with a general 4 to 8+ inch range across much of the area, with higher amounts (especially in Butler county) of 10-12+” possible, should the changeover to all snow occur closer to the 6 pm to 7 pm time frame (not likely).

Here is the updated snow accumulations from NWS Louisville, that even aligns more now with our thinking than it did this morning:

From this point forward, it’s nowcasting time.  This is the point in time when we throw out many of the models, and start to verify forecasts through reports and observations.

We’ll be updating frequently through the rest of the night @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx.  Everyone have a great night, and stay safe!