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Southern Kentucky Severe Weather Potential: We’ll be under an enhanced risk for strong & severe storms Monday. During the morning hours, a complex of storms will track NNE across the viewing area.
The following HRRR model is valid for 7am Monday morning. This particular run thinks we’ll be in the thick of showers & storms by that point in time. In other words…lay out your umbrella:
A few of the storms could be strong, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and hail.
After the morning activity gets out of our hair, a lull in activity should take place through the afternoon & early evening. We may see an isolated storm or two, but nothing widespread.
During this time, a strong cold front will be approaching from our southwest, priming our atmosphere to support severe weather, should it unfold:
A strong line of storms is anticipated to organize ahead of this front and move through our area late Monday night – early Tuesday morning.
The following NAM model loops every hour from 7pm Monday night – 1am Tuesday morning. It should give you a better idea of how this event may unfold:
Ingredients for severe convection will be ever-present in our atmosphere, allowing for some concern. This setup is typical for a fall-like severe weather event…high shear parameters, low instability values.
Something to pay attention to tomorrow will be how much sunshine we see after the morning storms move out. The more sunshine we see throughout the afternoon = the more instability we’ll have available for the line of storms to work with.
The latest SPC outlook has the majority of southern Kentucky (along with a large chunk of the Contitnental US) outlined in a Slight (think enhanced) Risk for severe weather Monday:
Primary threats with this line of storms will be damaging straight line wind, torrential rainfall, hail, and frequent lightning. Secondary threats such as localized flooding and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with this particular atmospheric alignment.
That will do it for now, friends. We’ll have a fresh forecast update for you bright and early tomorrow morning, so be sure an check back in. Be sure your weather radios are charged and that you have multiple ways of being informed should any warnings be issued tomorrow.
As always, stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx and @WxOrNotBG on twitter for the most up to date, real-time weather information.