New Winter Forecast From Climate Model

The JAMSTEC (Japanese Weather Model) updated their seasonal models just recently. This model has done a good job with general patterns in the weather over the past few winters. The ENSO forecast from the JAMSTEC shows a weak El NINO during the winter that will strengthen a bit during early spring.

JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for September through November:

JAMSTEC SST Anomaly for September – November

Here is the JAMSTEC forecasted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for December through February:

JAMSTEC SST Dec - Feb — JAMSTEC SST Dec – Feb

Notice the warm waters off the Pacific Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska. This is often associated with the positive phase of the PNA (Pacific/North American) teleconnection. The positive phase of the PNA is important because it typically leads to colder than normal temperatures across the eastern U.S.

Here is a map of the effects of the positive PNA on North America:

NC State University Positive PNA Effects Map

The JAMSTEC is forecasting below average temperatures for much of the Midwest this winter, with Bowling Green seeing closer to average temperatures.

JAMSTEC Surface Air Temperature Anomaly, Dec - Feb — JAMSTEC Surface Air Temperature Anomaly, Dec – Feb

The JAMSTEC shows much of the Southeast will receive above average precipitation for the December – February time frame.

JAMSTEC Precipitation Anomaly, Dec - Feb — JAMSTEC Precipitation Anomaly, Dec – Feb

**Keep in mind this is just a model! No model is ever entirely accurate and we shouldn’t put all of our trust into their forecasts.

Click Here for JAMSTEC model page.