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Real Time Regional Radar:
Today 8/18 – Isolated Showers/T’storms – High 85° / Tonight – Isolated showers/T’storms – Low 69°
It’s Monday once again, which means it is unfortunately a start to another work week. We’ll more chances of rain throughout the forecast period. Let’s take the forecast one step at a time. A low pressure system was situated over the confluence of the Ohio River and Wabash River. This has moved off to the east over the overnight hours.
Some of the moisture is lagging behind the front, thus we’ll leave a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. No severe weather is expected. The temperature forecast remains a bit complicated due to the uncertainty of cloud cover across the region this morning and into the afternoon. I’ll call for a high of 85° in Bowling Green. However, the temperature may read higher than that if there are more breaks in the clouds than expected. However, it will be lower if the cloud cover is thicker. Here’s what the High-Res NAM model suggests:
By Monday night the low pressure system will be well to the east of the region. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms should begin to wind down in the evening. Isolated showers will give way to partly cloudy skies. A low temperature of 69° seems reasonable.
Tuesday 8/19 – Isolated Thunderstorms – High 91° / Tue Night – Isolated Thunderstorms – Low 71°
On Tuesday we’ll see more upper level support enter the region. A sharp trough will enter from the west placing a jet streak close to the region in the afternoon hours. This will help enhance lift across the region, causing for some concern. At this time I expect only isolated showers and thunderstorms, however coverage will be a bit more widespread than today. Don’t kill the messenger…
With more upper level support comes a better chance of organized thunderstorms. The set up appears to be that thunderstorms will form along a relatively weak cold front located to the west of the region. These storms may become strong to severe as they move eastward along a boundary of shear. The better organized storms will have a chance of producing some hail, gusty winds, heavy rain, and vivid lightning. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a risk of strong storms to the west of Bowling Green.
After a high around 91°, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to form periodically along the cold front, which will be draped across the region. No severe weather is expected though. Expect a low around 71°.
Wednesday 8/20 – Isolated Thunderstorms; Hot – High 94° / Wed Night – Scattered Thunderstorms – Low 74°
Wednesday will likely bring some early morning showers to the region. These will generally decrease after daybreak. Partly cloudy skies will likely return by midday. Temperatures will increase quite a bit across the region as a ridge moves into the region from the south. Highs will be running in the low to mid 90s across the region. Let the sweat commence…
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely form in the heat of the day. The formation of storms may also be aided by left over outflow boundaries from the storms Tuesday evening. The NAM model believes most of the rain remains to the east of I-65 throughout the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday evening a thunderstorm complex may form north of the region. The NAM model brings this system south into the region. Thus, I will increase coverage to scattered thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Expect a low in the mid 70s.
That will about wrap up this post. Be sure to go indoors when thunder roars. Follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather details. Have a great day!