Calm Before the Storm

Today 3/1 – Mostly Cloudy – High 58˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Showers – Low 53˚

6am 42˚ ~ 9am 49˚ ~ 12pm 55˚ ~ 3pm 58˚ ~ 6pm 56˚ ~ 9pm 55˚

Today we’ll experience warmer temperatures but cloudy skies; we could squeak out a few peaks of sun. Southwest winds will pump in warm air that should allow us to warm into the mid to upper 50s. A few of us could even make a run for 60.

Temperatures will not be cooling off too much tonight thanks to southwest winds and cloudy skies. The chance for scattered showers also enters stage left as both a disturbance from the southwest and a cold front from the northwest will approach the area.

Don’t worry… everything falls as liquid Saturday night but that combination of a disturbance and a cold front (ie. colder air) will make things interesting come Sunday evening.

Sun – Rain Showers Likely – High 54˚ / Sun Night – Wintry Mix Likely, Breezy – Low 23˚

**Winter Storm Watch for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren Counties if effect after 6pm**

We start off with scattered rain showers across south-central Kentucky as waves of disturbances move along the aforementioned cold front. In general coverage and intensity of precipitation should increase throughout the day.

At some point, most likely during the early afternoon hours, the cold front will make a full sweep through south-central Kentucky allowing temperatures to quickly begin falling behind the front. Just how cold, how quickly??? The verdict remains out. Quite frankly, I’d rather Judge Judy just come in and make the ruling and settle it.

At some point by at least Sunday evening, a transition to freezing rain and sleet seems likely. Furthermore, it will be possible that considerable amounts of moisture will remain poised to move into the area after temperatures fall below freezing. This could cause a wintry nightmare overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Significant ice/sleet accumulations appear possible, but again there remain several questions still to be answered. Confidence is increasing in 0.25″ of ice accretion though. If fact, the WPC is now outlining parts of our area with 70% probability of at least that much ice.

Some snow will be possibly overnight Sunday into Monday morning as well, especially the further north you go. Still hard to pinpoint snow accumulations as well, but up to a couple inches seems reasonably possible at this time.

It will be breezy with northeast winds at 10-20 mph. If we get significant icing on trees/powerlines the wind may be a factor in enhancing impacts.

To get a better overall idea on how the system will evolve here is the 4km High-Resolution NAM from 3pm Sunday – 6am Monday. Keep in mind… this is a model, not a forecast.

Mon – AM Wintry Mix/Light Snow, Flurries – High 30˚ / Mon Night – Mostly Clear – Low 13˚

**Winter Storm Watch for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren Counties if effect until 6pm**

Monday morning, wintry precipitation may still be ongoing but it should quickly be ending from west to east. As more cold air filters in overnight, most locations will probably end with a little light snow or a few flurries. The bulk of the precipitation should have moved east by 9am, however flurries will remain possible throughout the day.

Monday will be raw with temperatures starting out in the low to mid 20s with winds creating wind chills in the low teens to single digits. Meanwhile skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day resulting in temperatures that will struggle to reach the freezing mark.

Things finally clear out Monday evening into the overnight which will allow temperatures to take a dive into the mid to low teens. A few locations may flirt with the single digits. Brrrr!

That’s all I’ve got for now. Landon and I will be keeping close tabs on the latest as this system continues to come into focus. We’ll have the latest on twitter… follow @Wx_Or_Not and @WarrenCountyWx. Enjoy a warm Saturday!